While I am at this risk quantification thing, I happened across the Near Earth Object Program’s quantification of the risk of an asteroid impacting earth in the next 100 years a while back and intended to blog it, but never got around to it (at least I don’t think I got around to it).

As an example, the object designated 2000 SG344 currently has a 1 in 556 chance of hitting the earth in the next 100 years. The risk is calculated by taking observational measurements and constantly recalculating the orbit.

How come we can quantify this and can’t do something as simple as quantifying risk in information systems?

Btw, at least one economist believes we should be spending a lot more money on the public good of asteroid deflection/destruction.